Predictions for 2008 - just for fun!? [Archive]

diogenes

04-03-2004, 04:55 PM

I spent about 4 hours typing this. not to mention about a year of high level research and analysis. I hope someone reads this. This could be a scary year. Oil will probably finally hit the cross between supply and demand. sending prices very high. I'm expecting at least $150-200. Gold will go up as money becomes worth less. Stocks will be a bad place to be. Have you looked at the market cap of Goog? is it really worth more than many countries economies? If I don't get best answer I'll be pissed! :) Here's my analysis:Basically everyone can admit stuffs up. Oil and gold are up big. Record territory for both (gold is working on it) There is crazy debt everywhere. (crazy debt) There is a clear major housing bubble in the US where house prices are dropping chunks of inflated value. A lot of it happens to be in the economic driving areas of the past boom period. California, Florida, south West. Not to mention a drought problem that is developing in some of these areas fuelling the exit. This exacerbates the credit problem as assets are falling, making the pillars of the economy (banks) very vulnerable as they're stuck holding the bag. They are highly leveraged. In a complex twister of contracts and splits and recontracts. (sounds like a good old fashioned hiding scam) Who knows how much is really owed and to whom? Whispers, fear. A major egg in the frying pan. The jobs and wealth of the US have been sucked out since free trade. A result of an imbalance in wages, (moving to rising places such as China and India because of a loophole in imperialism, they left too much wealth behind.) partly because of the strong dollar among many other huge advantages. (Being the Saudi Arabia by far to kick off their history didn't hurt.) In WW2 the US basically swamped a superior German army with oil, food, men, heavy equipment. America's wealth is being deflated. The US has been on a borrowing spree to maintain its lifestyle. The bill is in dangerous territory. The US government has been cranking out the debt like crazy. They opened up the treasury, a big crack. Massive tax dollars were flooded back to rich people. The richer you were, the more you got. Instant deficit from a massive surplus. Blame the recession or dot bomb, or whatever. Now things are a bit dangerous, time for a conflict (Convenient timing 9/11, if you look into 9/11, the government behaviour, and the size of the movement behind the conspiracy theorists...Its a real possibility, leaning strongly toward probable) Now we'll open up the debt and put it on steroids. Crazy money will be spent, giving out contracts left and right. Who ever can be hooked up will be. And is. How does Cheney stand to walk around in public? Haliburton got unbelievable contracts for serving food, doing plumbing, transport, oil services! selling gas you name it. Billions. Oh yeah, he doesn't walk around in public,or make appearances really. That goofy guy does, but much less than Presidents usually do. He is however a major vacation guy. That's just a tiny piece of it. How much was that bill again? $200B. Oh and that's only a piece as well?......Somebody's getting rich and somebody's paying.Who pays? The middle class, the economy, the poor indirectly since they don't have money but they do have a lifestyle to erode..they have it too good anyway..), the country. There are some damn cool tropical places out there.....wealth is shifting. This was an experiment made possible by fossil fuels. More for you means less for me. This is a rule. We're starting to run out. Stealing from the poor works very well. This is why the guilty experiences of imperialism and slavery were such smashing successes. Taking results in getting way more than sharing. Double this rule the less there is of something. Yes, our rich countries were taking from the poorer countries. Its been perfectly obvious, although a show hasn't been put on to advertise it. The stock and bond markets are OK places to be when things are expanding. Remember that rule about the capitalist system? Good during growth. They don't work when things shrink. Just look at what happens during a recession? All hell breaks loose in the financial markets. But its only a couple quarters of tiny economic contraction. What about a combination of major problems hitting the market so hard simultaneously. All are very bad and big. Too many bonds will not get paid, healthy stocks will take a drop as their customers can't pay or disappear, others cut down big time. Weak stocks will disappear completely. Perhaps some stocks will open up an umbrella and thrive in the storm by having critical products or choices for people to cling to like fresh sources of energy for example. My prayers that some will be so revolutionary and powerful and sustainable that they'll catch on big. Maybe find a way to survive and thrive in the tough climate. Major heroes to humanity in other words. Saving us from running of a die off cliff.Hopefully there won't be any wars. Look at the chess board. The US is getting so much weaker, even the military is being drained. Morale has to be pretty low compared to standards. But like a lion lying in the shade, none of those ambitious cubs circling around him will make a go of it. The US has shown everyone ad nausium how tough and sneaky they are anyone would get clobbered. Was there ever a time in US modern history where they weren't in a war of some kind? What is their military budget!? Pretty hard to say you're not a militant society when you spend more than the next 20 top countries combined. And you're in the middle of 2 major wars. In oil strategic regions. The US knows about peak oil. Cheney made a speech about it in 1999. Peak oil is predicted to land between 2004 and 2010 among respected experts (shockingly wide margin considering a quantifiable analysis could be done if the data was in the open) He probably knows more about it than I do.He lead the US energy planning task force set up in the early 2000's. Its secret by the way. But some scary stuff came out. Maps of the middle east, intimate knowledge of international oil companies contracts around the strategic areas. Military bases spring up all over North and West Africa. As well as the Middle East, and central Asia. Russia's pissed about it and is now sort of a 'frenemy' as Carrie from 'sex in the city' would say. Can you imagine how they'd be with out all their 9.5mbpd? Oh yeah, poor and weak like they were a couple years ago after their collapse amid artificially low manipulated oil prices. They've got some scary toys. Now the power they'll wield with the Gas and Oil they have. They'll use it probably even if they don't absolutely need it. Europe has been the best at alternative energy. They're not going to mix it up. They're leaders in wind and electrified rail. Dense populations. Few resources, rich weak dependant population. If they can stay out of trouble, there may be some solid places in Europe's future. Iceland for example is almost all alternative energy for power generation. Geothermal. They just have to speed it up and stay out of trouble.China is a wild dog on the loose. Eating everything in sight, growing at insane unheard of levels in the history of the earth. Hats off to you guys. Strongest economy in history. In the past 2 decades, where they came from. They'll hit a wall. Long before they hit the 20mbpd the US did (they're at about 6mbpd, half of which they provide to themselves and probably shrinking, its a secret too). Oil consumption is a good way to measure a country's power. Whoever controls the most oil has the most power. Peel away the matrix. Follow the money. War can be an equalizer however. Which can incentivize a weaker power. (Germany and Japan ring a bell?)China is making deals all over the world. Including Canada, Middle East, especially Africa (including the Sudan where they have a lot of clout, but china needs the oil more than Sudan needs the Money because everyone needs more oil now. China gives good deals, they're also good at bribery) The later two are hotbeds for American military build up (which is what a base is) Easy to see why Israel is so important. A steadfast ally (they're surrounded by vipers totally dependent on you for protection), well armed to the teeth, including nukes. In addition to the political advantages. And unbelievable blowback. Which can be funnelled into subversive violent activity eroding the countries oil consumption so the can be manipulated and export more wealth, I mean oil. Why is the US sitting on nearby perches in all these new areas? Well, it is close to all the strategic oil. Could you imagine them coming in and invading one of those countries? What about all the contracts with foreign companies and plans for all that oil in places like France, Russia, China follow the money, those countries had major deals with Iraq. All torn up. Looks like they have their plan figured out. That one was easy to pull off, The deals were only on paper and companies got screwed. They stomped their feet loudly tho. Russia hasn't been so friendly since. Imagine you got screwed like that in a threatening move and that guy has that smirk. If I were Putin I'd have a hard time standing his 'soulmate' as Bush referred to him early in the relationship. It must be hard to play nice.China and Russia are building up. They are thriving and wealth is flooding in. They're growing their economies They are also way weaker militarily, but have nukes which represent a line in the sand. They are collaborating on joint military options. What kind of operations do you think those are? A lot of thought and brainpower goes into military strategy. A safe bet would say many of their exercises imagined battling a powerful force like the US for example.....Middle eastern countries are trying to build wealth and hopefully power. Massive amounts are pouring into their national oil companies. They along with rich in wealth countries such as Norway (north sea oil) as well as Asia (including China) are setting up sovereign wealth funds. Perhaps a form of economy will exist and they'll have control over strategic assets. Financial centre, distribution hub? They're working on it. I'm dying to see Dubai. That Guy has a plan. It seems to be thriving and overflowing with money. They have gold bars at the airport according to legend.I'd always side with the dominant military being in charge however. If that military, I mean country had control over the oil they could pull off world domination. But you'd have to put the guy that used to run the Military, and then was in charge of the Energy task force, and a major powerful (some would say the most) influential company Haliburton. Man I hope this guy has a heart attack, his superior, intelligent smirk kills me.Seriously that's scary. He was also on PNAC. People for a New American Century. Hmm. I wonder what those guys were planning for, America for the next hundred years? Wasn't Wolfowitz the head of the world bank or something? That guy was the secretary of defence, that guy was a former VP, then Cheney and a bunch more with crazy histories and resumes.So they guys that wrote that paper are pulling the strings? Their agenda is basically unfolding. Build the strongest military by far. Have control of the oil. Its working. If these darn 'patriot' acts weren't so long and complicated I would have read them like everyone else has. Supposedly the stuff in it is insane. like citizens losing powers. the right to set up controlled mass imprisonment, powers to spy agencies on a grand scale, stuff on civil rights erosion etc. We just haven't seen it tested yet. Will they when prices go up, shortages intensify, some countries get choked off. oil is blood. Everything grinds to a halt. water, transportation, food, supplies. Will they fight for survival? 'nah they'll probably be terrorists of something and deserve it'What will the domestic climate of the US look like while that is unfolding on the world scale? All scenarios involve a troubled likely shrinking economy. Shrinking oil supplies is a very tough obstacle on top of it all. What will China do? Well they're trying to get as rich and powerful as they can. There's no way they can compete with the US. But the US doesn't want to mess with China for a number of reasons. What if you cut off their oil supply from places like Iran, Africa and other middle eastern regions? Would Canada halt exports to china if told to by the US if things got a bit ugly? What would China do? They can't roll over and shrink and struggle in spreading poverty. They'll have to fight won't they? Maybe The US will figure that and cripple them before they do? The line can be drawn anywhere. Its too bad the Proud, insecure, and greedy homo sapiens are making these calls. Its a trade off. Super intelligence. Genius. Our history isn't the achievements of humans. its a history of our geniuses. Plato, Caesar, Pericles, Einstein, Edison, Rockefeller, ford, tons of them. We are so inventive we have made the entire planet bend to our will. But we're self destructive. Its a control on our population that mother nature included in us. She made us after all. We didn't make ourselves. We're not gods, but we pretend to be. We're still yeast in the dish. There's only a certain amount of resources out there and we need to eat and consume. Animals, metals, energy etc. We're at capacity now. We can look at our farmland, our mines, our oil wells. We can count and do the math we perfected. We're maxing out big time. Now rich people are using their surplus wealth to use crops en masse to create fuel energy. This is a mistake and increasing rapidly. Its wasteful, futile, non sustainable and a diversion. Of attention, energy, money, wealth, more important time. Its taking off, with oil profits high they may continue it or ramp it up. this will put pressure on food prices. Both should rise. the only thing that will stop it is decline/collapse. What does a collapse look like? Its sort of slow. there's a build, a height is reached, many people address the issue, most people ignore it. Some people get rich, shortages break out, population decreases.What does thins mean? Flash forward to 2100. What will the population be of the earth? You never see these figures really. Because if the world grew at 2% which is slow. Capitalism needs growth, it grinds to a halt if it stops. We've torn our way to 6.5B just in the last couple of generations, our growth rate has been rapid. If it was 2% 6B in 2000. Using the rule of 72. the population would be 12B by 2036. 24B by the year 2072. 48B by the year 2108.Is this impossible? Yes. When you calculate that you need eight times the farmland, animals, fish, metals, gold, energy, electricity, oil, coal, everything. Its impossible. Unless technology can replicate matter, (we can't this is one of those universal absolutes). We don't have it, we've found all the easy stuff already. In fact, without oil, which was a bonus discovery. We can't be at 6B plus either. What should the population be according to science? About 2B according to respected estimates. this makes sense when you subtract tractors from the equation, or critical fertilizers (without which much farmland is worthless) or vital safeish pesticides imagine naked fruit, grains and vegetables out in the open. Oh yeah, Pestilence, that used to be a drag back in the day. Collapse is normal often inevitable. Are humans smarter than yeast? I don't know, all I'm saying is I'm hoarding as much gold and resources as I can borrow. With an eye on the exits...Interesting when you put this stuff together. You never hear these types of basic conversations. Very basic, simple survival type questions. You don't hear about them in the newspapers. No way! Too heavy, among more obvious reasons. Where can you learn about ideas and events referred to as 'Over Shoot' or 'Dieoff''population collapse animal or human''financial collapse of systems, societies, historical people'. Science and History books that's where. No one is reading, The collective are hypnotized by the powerful media for their information. Replete with hollow distractions and liars.Our populations will decline. There is no miracle cure on the horizon. It would be apparent by now. Breakthroughs in efficiency for electrical type energy, ethanols, liquefying natural gas are emerging. How much do we need to replace? They're not even close. If its happening now, like all the hard evidence is pointing to. Yikes. The people in charge know about it. And there's sparse evidence that they have a high regard for the poor of the world, as well as their own poor and extremely fragile middle class. A successful statesman is preoccupied with the expansion of the middle class. The middle class is paying for this show that is unfolding in the political and economic arena. Its being subsidized by the middle east and china among others. How long can this go on? The Dollar is on the brink. They abused it and have almost ruined it. (gold is rising because of this) When things get hairy and currencies are threatened or destroyed, war, economic collapse, sabotage of the currency (printing it). Gold goes up. But it just stays flat and consistent. Money bends around it. Money is shrinking in value next to gold. God performs well in all big picture extremes and instability. This above all else determines the price of gold. Not jewellery demand or materials demand. Who sold of loads of gold a while back? Who did ownership shift to while prices were low and everyone is looking the other way at the stock market? They made a fortune already. Gold went from $252 to $800 in the past few years. How come we don't read about that cool story in the news? Much more important and valuable however is the safety of the gold in exchange for currency. I wonder what those guys are doing with their money? Oh yeah, buying gold. Could make it go higher if history is any guide. (France in the 1700's for starters)This I believe pales in comparison to now. In all depressions or calamities we had an ace in the sleeve to come back to to pick us up. An extreme treasure chest of power, energy, food source!!, money, wealth underfoot. 90% of our transportation is completely dependent on it. Its running out. Nowish. 3/4th of the producing countries are in absolute, unstopable decline. Declining. Some for many years some just in the past couple. Some of them are Major. North Sea, Mexico. Lets look at the other 1/4, very scary picture. Most of our oil comes from just a few huge wells. When the big one goes (Ghawar, Saudi 5mbpd), its over. The number 2 (2mbpd Cantarel) is dropping like a nightmare stone to 1.5mbpd in the past couple of years. Saudi Arabia has hidden what is going on at Ghawar. Whispers are coming in from everywhere that Ghawar is down. Its expected this is true. The Beast had been pumping for about 60 years. Engineers, insiders, government figures and advisers that have intimate but not official experience. Say that the water cut (large amount of water added to flush out the oil as well as keep the critical pressure of the well up) indicates its highly likely they are in decline. Not to mention numerous structural issues in the well itself. The smaller fields from all over the country can not make up for this. Most of them have been tapped and shut down earlier. The others are extremely less efficient, sour, toxic, heavy. The big good ones are now very old as well. Also, it is very unhealthy for a well do be run flat out for long periods. Does permanent damage to the well. Saudi Arabia's wells have been abused as a result of cold war economic tactics that worked at bankrupting the Soviet Union.Does it seem likely that Saudi Arabia can keep pumping at 10mbpd? They're not there now. They are past their peak and have declined from a few years ago, not officially. Because they claim to be pumping less on purpose. With oil at $90!! Oil was at effectively $20 for most of its history and you guys are greedy. OPEC was created with the purpose of keeping oil as high as possible to maximize profits. It wasn't as effective as it should have been because they were always so damn greedy and pumped more. Now, 'the market is well supplied' so no need to increase output (Dec 05, 2007) '$90 oil is inflated due to greedy speculators'. Yeah, and gold is going up because of greedy jewelers and electronics customers. Saudi Arabia claims to be able to pump up to 12mbpd and up. Phew! They have plenty. Everyone just holds their breath and takes them at their word. Those that ask a few simple questions (and get stonewalled) such as. How? Where are the new fields? What are their reserves? Any details at all? Can we see the decline reports for the existing fields? Nope. Isn't this obvious????There are oil shortages. Huge ones in Africa, places all over Asia, China even had a major one. Their economic system bumped against capitalism. China flinched and is now forced to deal with oil at market rates. This will grow. As well as China's need to expand their strategic petroleum reserve. As well at their demand, until something stops it. What will stop it? China has vast wealth accumulated. A huge chunk of it is US Treasury certificates. How much did we owe you again? Oops, sorry about that shrinking dollar and inflation. sure beats a default Doesn't it? Because like a dog tied to a leash in the backyard when you run out to far you get choked and get yanked back. China will hit a wall one way or another. So there are noticeable major shortages all over the world that are not wanted. This coincides with oil high prices so simple screw ups and inefficiency are now less likely. It could be because of the price/ demand running up against supply. Guess who is last in line? Sorry Nepal et all. What about us? Well things will be better, except for spiking oil prices that is. When demand outstrips supply. (think of the panic when the major oil bourses have customers with crazy money in their hands saying 'not enough oil to go around, sorry') The first phase of this will be mild, noteworthy erosion of inventory. This is just starting to happen. A very steep decline in inventory in the past few months Dramatic compared to the the few years before. We're down to 2005 levels right now. Prices are up. Excuses are flying. Noise, distraction. My bet, if you can listen and watch closely, the swords of supply and demand are crossing.Most people would say, 'sure the price of oil is going up. Yeah, those darn oil companies...Nah, there's plenty of oil. I've never even heard of peak oil. .......Look into it! .......Sure, I'll check it later.......If you know the price is going up. Do something about it. Even if you have no idea or interest in grasping all the implications of the price going up. Or if you think a 50% rise in a couple of years will happen. That's a valuable piece of information to take advantage of. A huge portion of the 'experts' are morons. There's a big secret for everyone. The emperor has no clothes. Or much worse.